What About Beijing?: Olympic Team Selection

Part 2a.

So, what about Beijing?

Well, before I go around naming people right and left, let’s look at the history books. (I did some research for this, so I had better be rewarded for my pains someday. Ha.)

2001-2004 Period
2001 World Team: Bhardwaj, Heenan, Miles, Schwikert, Tidd, Yim
2002 World “Team”: Humphrey, Kupets, Postell, Sheehan
2003 World Team: Humphrey, Kupets, Memmel, Patterson, Schwikert, Vise

2004 Nationals Top 7 AA: Kupets, Patterson, Humphrey, McCool, Ishino, Tricase, Yim
2004 Trials Top 7 AA: Kupets, McCool, Patterson, Yim, Ishino, Bhardwaj, Humphrey

2004 Olympic Team: Bhardwaj, Hatch, Humphrey, Kupets, McCool, Patterson

The fun began in 2002, with Kupets and Humphrey going to Debrecen; Hatch made her comeback at 2003 Nationals, McCool and Patterson burst onto the scene in 2003, and Bhardwaj triumphantly returned in 2004, literally right before the Games.
Out of the six girls on the team, Kupets and Humphrey had the most Worlds experience in that quadrennium. Patterson and McCool came into the Olympic picture later in the time frame–Carly only had major international success in 2003, and Courtney M. in 2004. Hatch and Bhardwaj were veterans without much international exposure (Bhardwaj in 2001 Ghent, and that was it).

So that makes two internationally seasoned gymnasts (Kupets and Humphrey), two “young guns” (McCool and Patterson), and two long shots/veterans from past quadrennia that were selected for vaulting ability (Hatch and Bhardwaj, although in Mo’s case being a decent all-around gymnast didn’t hurt).

Now compare that to this quadrennium:

2005 World “Team”: Bieger, Liukin, Memmel, Sacramone
2006 World Team: Bieger, Kelley, Liukin, Memmel, Priess, Sacramone
2007 World Team: Hong, Johnson, Liukin, Peszek, Sacramone, Worley

Obviously the 2008 Nationals and Trials haven’t happened yet, so let us look at this year’s Nationals results:

2007 Nationals Top 7 AA: Johnson, Worley, Liukin, Hong, Sloan, Stack-Eaton, Peszek

In this four-year period, Nastia and Alicia have been in all three World Championships up to this point; it would seem that could make them this quadrennium’s equivalent of Kupets and Humphrey. Shawn’s the new Carly.
So, assuming that the hypothetical Beijing team mirrors the Athens team, we will have two gymnasts from each of the following categories (I am not counting the gymnasts who do not appear in the lists above, e.g., Pama, Stageburg, Trani, Flohr):

Internationally seasoned: Bieger, Liukin, Memmel, Sacramone

Young Guns: Hong, Johnson, Peszek, Sloan, Worley

Long shots: Kelley, Priess, Stack-Eaton

Looking at the teams this way, one might conclude that Nastia and Alicia are basically locks for Beijing, as is Shawn (yep, she’s the new Carly!). That leaves three spots–one more “young gun”, and two long shots.

Realistically, Chellsie and Jana, despite their international exposure, are long shots for the moment, with Chellsie still recovering from shoulder injury and Jana not in good shape. They do, however, have the potential to come roaring back next year. I hope. But if Natasha Kelley and/or Ashley Priess can do a really big clean-up and get their act together…both Priess and Kelley have the skills, just not the polish or the experience or consistency we see from Sac and Nast.

As for the newcomers, Ivana and Sam Peszek are also still question marks. I think Shayla has, barring injury, a better chance than Sam and Ivana do, as she can break 15 on UB and BB; Sam’s only real great contribution to the Worlds team was vault, and Ivana couldn’t break 15 in Stuttgart. (I would actually consider Sam a long shot if I didn’t know that she is capable of doing better.) Bridget is an unknown variable, because her international (and national!) exposure is so limited, although she’s certainly got talent. We shall see how she does at the Beijing Test Event.

COMING SOON: Part 2b, or, Getting Inside Martha’s Head